| Juan Lavista Ferres, Chief Data Scientist, Microsoft and Chris Bishop, Technical Fellow and Director of Microsoft Research AI for Science
Around the world, the dangers of extreme weather are a daily reality. In 2024, extreme weather displaced or disrupted the lives of more than 800,000 people worldwide —a reminder that accurate, timely forecasts aren’t just about data; they’re about people. From farmers deciding when to plant to coastal communities preparing for hurricanes, better forecasting can save lives, protect infrastructure, and support economies.
That is why Microsoft remains deeply committed to Aurora, an AI model designed to help scientists understand Earth systems in new ways. Trained on vast amounts of data, it’s tuned to model the Earth’s systems. Aurora has already shown promise across multiple scenarios, including predicting the weather, tracking hurricanes and air quality, and modeling ocean waves and energy flows.
Today, we are reaffirming our commitment: keep Aurora open, collaborative, and impactful so researchers can innovate faster and deliver solutions that help communities prepare, adapt, and thrive. Scientific progress depends on openness and a strong global community, which is why Aurora will progress as an open-source platform, enabling scientists everywhere to contribute and apply it to new climate and weather challenges.
The next phase: Fueling innovation through research partnerships
We’re collaborating with Professor Rich Turner, a leader in machine learning research, and his lab at the University of Cambridge through a Microsoft AI for Good grant and research scientists to continue development of Aurora. Originally developed by Microsoft Research AI for Science, with collaboration from Professor Turner, we believe Aurora has the potential to change the way scientists around the world can use AI for weather and climate science.
Building on our SPARROW initiative, we’re also investing in research of open-source weather stations that can expand access to high-quality environmental data. These affordable, community-deployable systems are designed to help fill critical observation gaps and strengthen the dependability of weather predictions where they matter most.
Making Aurora available to scientists everywhere
Aurora’s source code and model weights are already open—but we’re going further. Together with Turner and Cambridge, our AI for Good team will open-source future releases of Aurora and new models that are built upon it, including training pipelines. By making Aurora open and free to build upon, we’re enabling researchers and developers everywhere to collaborate, contribute, and drive innovation together.
Empowering national meteorological services
As with any technology, the measure of success for tools like Aurora is to have a positive impact on the lives of people. Empowering national meteorological services across the Global South, along with the Global North, is a priority. We’re particularly focused on the application of Aurora to help meteorological services develop and strengthen their own forecasting systems that are tailored to their own local environments. This will allow them to adapt, extend, and innovate on top of Aurora, improving the accuracy, reliability, and reach of their forecasts.
Enabling a cross-industry ecosystem
Aurora is trained on one of the largest collections of atmospheric data ever assembled to develop an AI forecasting model. It’s then fine-tuned to perform a variety of specific tasks, like predicting wave height or air quality, using modest amounts of additional data.
The application of such a model could unlock innovation across all kinds of other industries. For example, energy companies and commodity traders have expressed interest, particularly in seeing how Aurora can be adapted to better predict renewable power generation, anticipate extreme weather events, and help protect energy grids.
We are excited to see our work on Aurora graduate from a research project into a truly collaborative, open-source effort. By opening Aurora to the global community, we’re enabling breakthroughs in scientific understanding that we hope will transform humanitarian aid, optimize energy systems, advance sustainability, and even reshape financial services.
Tags: AI, AI for Good
