Two Elections Requiring a Surge in European Integration
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« Don’t Wait, Don’t Depend: Building Our European Power and Enabling It! The rise of global and European nationalism is a clear call to action. Now is not the time for endless analysis, but for decisive steps forward. That is why EuropaNova is committed to a strategy that involves civil society, including European leaders, in accelerating Europe’s power, autonomy, and sovereignty. All of this must be achieved while staying true to core values such as democracy, sustainable development, solidarity, and prosperity. There can be no solidarity without prosperity, and no prosperity without solidarity. Today, Europe must chart a distinctive path toward a future of its own choosing. Since 2023, EuropaNova has been working to bring together civil society and European leaders across all sectors to engage in structured reflection on the horizon of 2040. Our 2024 report, « Europe 2040: Tomorrow is today », outlines a vision to co-create a global, sustainable, and responsible power, with 17 critical questions that must be addressed. The report also includes an analysis by Olivier Costa, a member of EuropaNova’s scientific committee. » – Isabelle Négrier, Executive Director of EuropaNova.
In June 2024, the European elections saw a rise in eurosceptic right-wing parties, serving as a final warning before a potential blockage of European institutions. Across the Atlantic, Donald Trump was called back to power. These two elections create a difficult context for the European Union, which now faces a weakened decision-making capacity and fears that it may suffer from a more or less radical American withdrawal. However, these events could also offer an opportunity for a much-needed resurgence.
A Mixed Outcome in the European Elections
The European elections did not lead to a major upheaval but have created new uncertainties. The European Parliament (EP) continues its evolution from the past 20 years: it is shifting further to the right and becoming more fragmented. There was no overwhelming surge from the far-right as feared. In some countries, such as France, Austria, the Netherlands, and Germany, far-right parties achieved historic results, but they saw setbacks in Italy, Poland, Denmark, Sweden, and Finland. As a result, the ECR group (eurosceptic nationalists, sitting to the right of the European People’s Party, or PPE) gained only 4 seats (73), and the ID group (far-right) gained 9 seats (58).
The main pro-European groups – the socialists (S&D), the liberals and centrists (Renew), and the Christian Democrats (PPE) – continue to dominate the EP with around 400 seats. The PPE group gained 10 seats (186), while the S&D group lost 5 seats (135). The Renew group suffered a significant decline, dropping from 102 to 79 seats. The Greens also lost 18 seats due to poor performances in Germany and France; with only 53 members, they will no longer have the same influence. Nevertheless, the informal coalition formed by the S&D, Renew, and PPE groups, which dominated the previous EP, persists and has enabled Ursula von der Leyen’s re-election as President of the European Commission. The appointment of the new College of Commissioners is not expected to face significant challenges.
However, the EP is more fragmented than in 2019. The number of groups has increased (now 8, with the addition of a new far-right group), and the size gaps between them have narrowed. As a result, securing majorities has become more complex. Before 2014, it was sufficient for the S&D and PPE groups to agree. Since 2019, they have had to negotiate with other groups to secure their position (Renew, Greens, GUE). Now, the political dynamics will be even more complex, and it is possible that on certain issues – such as immigration or environmental policies – the PPE may be tempted to vote with the groups to its right, rather than with the socialists and liberals.
U.S. Elections that Highlight the Urgency for Change
In the United States, Donald Trump’s victory was clear, and with a Republican majority in the Senate, the new president will have free rein to implement his agenda, with little indication that he will show any restraint. Protectionism will be a key feature of his policy, and U.S. support for Ukraine and investment in NATO will be reassessed. The scenario that no one anticipated in 2020 – Trump’s return to the White House, determined to settle scores with those who opposed him – has come to pass.
Trump will not take office until January 2025, but already we have seen the disorganized reactions of EU member-state leaders, who rushed to congratulate him and attempt to establish privileged dialogue. Ursula von der Leyen, for her part, stood out with the enthusiasm of her congratulatory message, which reflects her Atlanticism and suggests she may not be eager to challenge U.S. authorities.
Decline or Resurgence for the European Union?
The worst is never certain. Over the past 20 years, the European Union has proven its ability to turn crises into opportunities. Indeed, all the major initiatives of the 2000s were responses to urgent situations: the rise of euroscepticism, the financial crisis, the migration crisis, Brexit, illiberal trends, the war in Ukraine… Once again, the EU must think in terms of the “cost of non-Europe,” as Jacques Delors proposed in the 1980s. There are now three essential conditions that must be met to avoid the EU’s economic and geopolitical decline, particularly in light of the new political landscape in the United States.
First, a Unified Response to the U.S. Election Results
The EU must stop reacting in a fragmented manner to the outcomes of U.S. elections and avoid situations where member states try to negotiate individual preferential arrangements with the U.S. at the expense of others. Against all expectations, the EU has demonstrated its ability to act collectively in recent years. One of the Brexit architects’ great disappointments was the EU27’s ability to stand united and fully entrust Michel Barnier with the task of negotiating the divorce agreement. The EU also showed a united front in its response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. While some, like Viktor Orban, have since undermined this unity, it initially came as a major surprise to the Kremlin.
Second, Put Money on the Table
The EU must increase its financial investment. In recent years, there has been a growing consensus that the EU should be more ambitious in various areas: industrial policy, defense, innovation, social action, ecological transition… But at the same time, the “frugal” member states are consistently pushing for a reduction in the EU budget, which has shrunk in recent years from 1.27% of the Union’s GDP (the maximum allowed by treaties) to just 1%. For comparison, the U.S. federal budget alone represents 25% of the country’s GDP.
Third, Embrace Deeper Integration
Finally, more integration must be accepted. As it stands, the requirement for unanimity in all key decisions – foreign policy, taxation, enlargement, or treaty reform – gives figures like Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin a veto over EU actions. All it takes is one member of the European Council to refuse to join decisions they oppose, as Viktor Orban has frequently done. While it is commendable that the EU advances with respect for national sovereignty, what was possible with 6, 12, or 15 members, all in agreement on the essentials, is no longer feasible with 27. There are now significant divergences in views and interests that make achieving unanimity on any ambitious decision increasingly difficult. Therefore, deeper integration is required, meaning member states must agree to new transfers of sovereignty, support the strengthening of supranational institutions (the EP, the Commission, the Court of Justice, the European Central Bank), and reduce the scope of unanimity within the European Council and the Council of the EU.
The current highly tense context – the war in Ukraine, Chinese trade pressure, rising euroscepticism, American protectionism, possible NATO decline, illiberal trends in Europe… – poses a huge challenge for the European Union. Donald Trump’s election is yet another test for the EU: it could seal its economic and geopolitical relegation, but it could also spark the resurgence needed to avoid that outcome.
